Archive for May, 2009

Anticyclic Investments

Wednesday, May 27th, 2009

 

Henry Ford was, as is widely acknowledged, a genius. He is well known for introducing mass production principles to the burgeoning horseless carriage market thereby effectively creating the automobile market as we know it today. Less well known is his attitude to innovation which accurately reflects the dilemma of many a company in the present economic climate.

Back in 1914 the world was in recession and car sales fell off the edge of a cliff. Henry Ford’s company, spoiled by success was experiencing something new – rapidly falling sales with no turnaround in sight. Faced with such a calamity, Henry Ford introduced a number of measures designed to ensure the future success of his company.

One of these measures was to double the salary of the employees. Yes, double it. From an average $2,34 per day to $5,00 per day. He also started involving his employees in improvement activities during the times that they would normally have been building cars. What sounds like pure communism actually made perfect sense. The good employees stayed at Ford and the company emerged from the crisis better positioned to build better cars. In other words, Ford had invested into the cyclic downturn in order to strengthen the company for the future. There was also the possibility of better using the employees’ skills during economic downturns in order to improve the products and give them a cutting edge for the next upturn. The expressions “R&D” and “Lean” hadn’t yet been invented, but the thinking and philosophy were clearly in place.

Reflecting these events of history onto the situation today raises the question of whether anything can be learned. Of course, just simply blindly increasing your innovation budget is probably not the way to go in today’s environment. However, blindly cutting your budget is also not the answer. Maybe it’s time to reevaluate your innovation activities, analyse exactly which activities are the ones that generate the value for you now and also where the value is going to come from in the future. These activities can then form the base of an investment plan to ensure that necessary cost cutting and efficiency increases take place, but using an instrument better suited than a lawnmower.

Protectionism in the mobile phone business

Monday, May 18th, 2009

We saw it in the music industry when Napster appeared on the Internet. Global record music companies freaked out when they saw their profits going to hell due to the online file sharing service. The answer was as expected – the music industry went to court and sued against the file sharing business. They won that fight but not the war since the whole music business as it existed is shaking. Nowadays how many people really go to a record store to buy a CD?? Online music business is the future but the music industry tried to protect their interest and where not considering of changing or adapting to the changing needs in the market.

Funny enough it seems that now the mobile phone industry, the provider in particular, are facing the same problems. 2 weeks ago I was on a business trip to Japan and met with several mobile phone producers and managers from the semiconductor industry. In Japan  the providers are literally dictating the producers what the have to develop in order to stimulate the Japanese market.
However back here in Europe it seems that the providers as well are starting to tell the mobile phone producers what to put into the phones and what not. Probably you saw it this week on the news or Internet. T-Mobile does not want to sell Nokia phones which have Skype installed any more ( Skype is a software applications that allows users to make telephone calls over the Internet). The reason T-Mobile announced was that Skype could overload the mobile network. Probably not the real reason since you can make phone calls via the Internet for free with a wireless access point. So again pure protectionism from the providers instead of thinking what business opportunities are laying in front of them. Nokia and Skype just had an agreement in February to equip more phones with this software. For the providers a total alert. They have lost already customer who went for a cheaper prepaid service provider, they don`t want to loose even more. But this protectionism will not help because consumer will for sure move to cheaper phone calls if possible. Again this will have an extreme impact on the mobile phone market. And for the providers it`s about time to consider how to adapt to the new conditions or even find some business opportunities.

Winners of the economic crisis

Monday, May 11th, 2009

Cost reduction, risk management or a new business model – which is the right way to answer the current economic crisis. Actualy that is already the wrong question. Lets have a look at the winners and find out why they benefit from the crisis. Here are some of them…

Ronald McDonald – as a rather pricier restaurant chain McDonalds has seen two million extra customers a month compared with last year and is intending to create 4,000 new jobs.

Reckitt Benckiser - the company has posted record profits of £373m for the last quarter. It seems that none of us can afford to leave the house to go to a restuarant any more. Instead people are staying home and fill up the fridge and stack the dishwasher.

Karl Marx - oh yes!!! In Germany bookstores have a 300 per cent increase in sales of “Das Kapital” in recent months, and that is not all. Visitors are marching to Marx’s birthplace in Trier.

WMF - cutlery and coffee machine manufacturer has increasing sales with products around the cooking. “food is becoming more and more celebrated” said company spokesman Thomas Dix.

IKEA/ H&M/ Aldi/ Lidl - people spend less money for consumer products. Therefore it is not a suprise to see that the sales of discounters is currently increasing above average.

But what is happening actually. The fact that people have less money in their pockets and therefore have to go for cheaper products is obvious. At a closer look however there is a second development that might be not so clear. Cocooning - the desire to perform the majority of social and cultural interactions (working, entertaining, relaxing, etc.) from home, rather than by going outside the home. Just compare the latest numbers from the gastronomy business or travel agencies. On the other hand however companies in consumer electronics facing an increase of sales.
Again it is not all about cost saving, cost reduction, risk management or suchlike. Some companies will benefit from this development and some won`t but companies which are able and willing to adapt quickly according to those trends will make the way out of the crisis.